A.M.K. is a smart guy and a deadly-serious Edmonton Oilers fan. He reflects on their 2012 lineup and sketches out the team's future.
On trading away Tom Gilbert for Nick Schultz
There seems to be mostly negative
evaluation of Tambellini and friends on the deadline day trade that
happened like a car crash in the middle of nowhere. At this point I have
not studied Schultz' game enough to offer a particularly intelligent
opinion of him, but overall I agree with most of the comments
infiltrating the blogosphere in that this trade seems to be a loss for
Edmonton. That being said, I don't hate it.
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| Tom Gilbert / Nick Schultz |
The trade can be
considered a loss for various reasons. On the surface, Gilbert is one of
the Oilers' top point-producing defenseman, and even though I wouldn't
label him an offensive defenseman as many people do, he definitely has
offensive ability. Offensive ability on a team whose defensive severely
lacks such a thing. Minus one on the trade here.
Gilbert has
averaged more ice time than anyone else on the squad in the past several
years, meaning that he can be counted on to log a lot of minutes. He
has logged these minutes sporting a much better plus/minus than the
overall team, and he usually faces tough competition. His zone starts
are not dominate in either way. Schultz on the other hand does not log
as many minutes as Gilbert, but he does log over 20. I haven't seen
anyone mention this yet, but perhaps if Schultz were on the Oilers over
the past few years and Gilbert on the Wild, their minutes would be
reversed. Furthermore, there is a difference between eating up a lot of
minutes and being effective and eating up a lot of minutes and screwing
up. Normally you'd think that if you eat up minutes you are entrusted to
do so, meaning you don't make a lot of mistakes. This is the Oilers
we're talking about though, and part of the reason Gilbert has been a
minutes-eater has been because they don't really have anyone else. That
being said, Gilbert is effective in almost every situation and
dependable.
Schultz is counted on for even strength and penalty
kill minutes and is similarly dependable in all the situations in which
he is asked to play. On the surface this looks like an immediate
loss--two guys, not prone to errors, who give you what you want in the
situations they are asked to play, except one can play on the power play
and add points.
A digression on powerplay defencemen
I would argue that Gilbert is the fourth-best PP
defender on the Oilers at this point, behind Whitney, Potter and Petry.
Actually I like Potter better on the first unit at this point--he seems
to be a bit quicker with the pass and less prone to letting the puck
hop over his stick and generally better at keeping the puck in--but
neither are ideal guys if there is a breakout by the other team's PK.
Whitney is immobile and Potter is terrible at defending 2-1 rushes. That
being said, I still don't think Gilbert is needed for the PP on this
team right now, seeing as they only run one defender (usually) on it.
Even with injuries, I see the Oilers either adding a #5 guy or a top
pairing guy before next season who can play on the PP. So even though
Gilbert can be used on the PP, he doesn't need to be, and is not a
better option than we already have. Redundancy is the issue here.
So
why would we want to add Schultz instead of Gilbert?
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| Nick Schultz getting tough. |
It has to do with
the direction management wants the D to go in. I half like this decision
because I think the Oilers are too soft on D right now. Gilbert is good
positionally and a good defender but I don't think he is particularly
scary or tough to play against. I think only Smid is tough and good
positionally (Suttion just tough), and from what I hear about Schultz,
his defensive positioning is even more sound than Gilbert's and he is harder to play against. He has sound positioning with his angles in the defensive zone and he is more likely to rough you up a bit if you cross him.
How it affects the rest of the team
I half don't like this decision because I'm worried
that a tougher D means that they are not as concerned now about adding a
tough top-6 left winger. I don't not think Pajaarvi cuts it right now.
He might later, but he doesn't now. Ideally we add a tough first line
left-winger via free agency (I can't see how they'd manage this) or we
draft Forsberg and hope he's tough and is skilled enough to play on the
top line. Penner again? He must be cheap right now. I will grudingly accept another year where no one quite fits
the bill, but by 2013's camp we need someone ready to step into this
position and fly with it. The other thing that I can see happening is
drafting Grig as the 2nd line centre and trading Gagner and a couple
prospects that aren't looking like great fits (plus Peckham and/or a
pick) in exchange for a #1 left winger. This is probably the most
plausible option and the most immediately effective one, which hurts me
to write because I like Gagner. Ideally though he puts on a good show
the last twenty games enough to have high value and it's a charade of
talent so the Oil get top dollar for him.
What I think the
defensive move boils down to, as has been mentioned, is a huge vote of
confidence for Petry and a prayer that Whitney regains form. I like part
one but am pessimistic with part two. Ideally I am wrong and Whitney
regains form and Petry is what he looks like--if Petry keeps improving
and Whitney comes back (the real Whitney) we could have a decent top
pairing with a really good shut down pairing in Smid and Schultz. Or we
could have Petry/Smid and Whitney/Schultz if Whitney isn't 100%, which
is a more likely conclusion in my opinion. Not terrible, but not great,
and certainly not elite.
 |
| High hopes for Jeff Petry. |
It would be nice if the Oil pick up a
top pairing defensive, get rid of Whitney (again, I am pessimistic) and
either pick up a young up-and-coming defenseman as guy #5 or pray that
Fedun recovers 100% and turns out quickly. I like Fedun more for next
year than any other prospect stepping in at this point, even with his
injury. Sutton and Potter can be 6/7. If you are counting on Fedun as #5
instead of first call up though, any injuries come to our top 5 we are
screwed. Give me a young Leafs defenseman please; they have plenty
still, even with Aulie gone. Has the ship sailed on Schenn?
What should happen in the next six months?
Ideally, in my head, some variation of this:
- draft Grigorenko at #2 overall (and stop winning games already goddamnit)
- or, win the lottery and grab Yakupov as our #1
LW; it will mean Gagner is 2C, Horcoff 3C and Belanger 4C, or Lander
3C/Horcoff 4C, and although all those people can probably handle those
assignments, injuries = we're screwed because no one can move up in the
depth chart effectively and not only that I don't think those players
will excel in higher positions as much as if they were dropped down a
peg with a big strong talented 2C
- trade Gagner, Whitney and Peckham for a #1 left winger to play with RNH
and Eberle. Throw in Martindale and a pick if they want them.
- or, just sign one via UFA and not give up anyone; it could happen, right?
- Sign a UFA top pairing defender (or trade for one) to play with Petry/Smid/Schultz
- Sign a #5 defender as insurance in case Fedun doesn't pan out
- Get rid of other excess for draft picks or prospects
There,
wasn't that fun? If no one wants Belanger/he greatly improves his game
over the last regular season games, I would be okay with keeping him
as 4C and leaving Lander down for another year. 2013 Lander can come up
for 3C and Horcoff down to 4 if need be, or deadline deal Belanger next
year and have Lander step up then. Perhaps Vandevelde can step in too if
need be, people in OKC seem to like him as a 4C guy and he didn't look
bad in his call-up last year.
Where does this leave next year's lines?
I'm glad you asked.
Trade guy - RNH - Eberle
Hall - Grig - Hemsky
Smyth - Horcoff - Omark
Harty - Belanger - Jones
Petrell, Eager
UFA - Petry
Smid - Schultz
Trade/Fedun - Sutton
Potter
OR, if we get lucky and win the lottery, how's this:
Yakupov - RNH - Eberle
Hall - Gagner - Hemsky
Harty - Horcoff - Omark
Smyth - Belanger - Jones
Petrell, Eager
UFA - Petry
Smid - Schultz
Fedun - Sutton
Potter
And lastly, option #3 in my head, which is what I actually think might be most doable:
Hall - RNH - Eberle
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| Who will it be? |
Harty - Gagner - Omark
Smyth - Horcoff - Jones
Petrell, Eager
UFA - Petry
Smid - Schultz
Fedun - Sutton
Potter/Peckham
A.M.K. was born sometime between the Gretzky trade and the Oilers' last Stanley Cup. He's not much of a sports fan, but he's a huge Oilers fan and a dedicated writer. He probably won't bother watching any playoff games this year.
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